bbtmn

Not so High Speed 2

Sunday 3rd February 2013

The other day the Government announced a provisional route for High Speed 2. Now they’ll consult, and announce the final route at some point in the future. The first phase – the section between London and Birmingham – is due to start construction in 2017, and due to be completed by 2026.

In May 1961, President Kennedy announced that he wanted America to do something radical, something that no-one had ever done before. He announced that by the end of the decade, America would put a man on the Moon. You probably know how that turned out.

Getting to the Moon required lots of research, and working at the cutting edge of technology. High speed rail isn’t new technology, it’s been around for decades. Yet we’re saying that it’ll take longer to build a couple of hundred miles of rail line than it took to figure out how to complete a round trip of almost a million miles, using new technology, in the sixties.

Final cost of the Apollo project: $25 billion in 1970, or about £80 billion in present money. Projected cost of HS2: £32 billion.

Does it really sound reasonable that the entire Moon landing programme should cost about 2.5 times more than a high-speed rail link? I think not.

It’s a good idea to build a high-speed rail link. In fact we probably should’ve done it before now, and we should probably be at the stage of having a high-speed network, as in other developed countries. But it baffles me that it’s going to take so long, and cost so much.

Posted at 4:59 pm | Tagged: | 2 Comments

Well played, sir

Friday 2nd November 2012

So you’re a Republican Governor. You’ve been in the role since 2009, and coming up to the end of your first term. You’re the first Republican to win a statewide election in your state in over a decade, and during your time as governor you’ve built up a formidable reputation. Although people told you that you should, you elected not to stand for the Republican Presidential nomination. So some other guy gets nominated, and obviously as the election nears you play your part. Talk him up, talk down the other guy. All standard stuff.

And then a fucking big storm hits your state. And then you do this.

Governor Christie, well played.

You can see the logic. This guy is good. He’s done a good job as Governor of New Jersey, and had he stood I think he would’ve had a very good chance of getting the nomination. So why didn’t he stand? Well, if your assessment that the incumbent is likely to win, you might not want to stand against him. Because if you do, and lose, then that’s it, that’s your shot. Surely better not to run, to try in 4 years against the next Democratic nominee, who won’t have the advantage of incumbency. As a bonus, you can spin it as loyalty to the people who elected you as governor, and by distancing yourself from the election now, you also distance yourself from the nutters that currently comprise the GOP.

I kinda hope this is right. Christie seems to have done a good job as Governor; he’s done sensible stuff, and has actively tried to work with the other party. He would be a substantially better President than either of the numpties that are currently on offer (although I realise that isn’t saying much).

Of course, all this is skewered if Romney wins next week. On the subject of that… I think I’m right in saying that in the UK, most people would see Obama as the better candidate. In fact I think I saw a thing in the news recently about the results of a survey carried out which said that, if they had a vote, something like 75% of Britons would vote for Obama. I’m not sure why, because Obama has been a fairly mediocre President. Sure, he’s been better than Bush Jnr, but I don’t think that’s really an acceptable benchmark. So I’m biased towards Romney purely because he’s The Other Guy.

But would he do a good job? During the campaign Romney has been chameleonic, blending himself to fit in with the views of whoever’s nearby, to try to win their vote. That’s probably logical. I think he’s generally a moderate candidate, and he’s had to at least appear more hardline to win the support of the whackjobs in his party in order to secure the nomination. My instinct is that he’d probably be marginally better than Obama as a president, but it’s really hard to tell because he’s currently saying anything to win votes. So of the two, if I had a vote, I’d pick Romney over Obama; I’d prefer to take a chance on someone who’s unknown, rather than stick with someone who we know has done a bad job. But the choice is kinda like picking which limb you’d like to cut off; there’s no good answer, only a least bad one.

But we need Obama to win so Christie can stand in 2016, so that America can have a decent President for the first time since Clinton left office… Obama for President!

Posted at 11:56 pm | Tagged: | 2 Comments

Obamacare

Thursday 28th June 2012

A little while ago the US Supreme Court upheld President Obama’s healthcare reforms, officially named the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, but called Obamacare by everyone else. The latter takes less time to type, so that’s what I’m gonna call it for the rest of this post… Anyway, rather predictably the reaction seems to be fairly mixed. One group thinks judging the individual mandate (I’ll come to it in a minute) constitutional is a grave mistake and, ahem, “un-American”. The other group seems to largely think that the first group is nutty, and that Obamacare is a Very Good Thing Indeed. My reaction was to realise that I don’t really know what Obamacare is all about, and to try to find out.

So I’ve spent a little bit of time doing that. I’m still not entirely sure I’ve got all of it, so I might’ve missed things out or misunderstood them, but from what I can ascertain here are some of the key features of the reforms.

Firstly, they’ve introduced an individual health insurance mandate. This says that individuals who do not receive public health insurance (Medicare or Medicaid) or private insurance through their employer, must purchase an approved private insurance policy, or otherwise pay a penalty. This is the basis of the question of constitutionality; because it essentially requires individuals to purchase a service from a private company, whether they want to or not. I kind of have some sympathy with this; it is a restriction of freedom, even if it is relatively trivial in comparison to other types of restrictions. I believe that the motivation for introducing this change is that uninsured patients cost more money, because they don’t get problems looked at until they’re severe enough to take them to A&E, where (presumably) someone else picks up the tab.

So that is a trade-off between individual liberty and overall utility. Personally, I can see both sides of that argument, and I think that either opinion is a respectable one to hold. As it turns out, I think that the Supreme Court ruled that the individual mandate is unconstitutional, but that the penalty you must pay if you don’t want to have insurance is actually a kind of tax, and it is constitutional for the government to impose such a tax. Interesting argument. Mostly I reckon that this basically highlights one of the key problems with having a constitution, but that’s something for another day.

Another effect of the reforms is to impose more stringent restrictions on the providers of health insurance. Insurers can no longer stop offering coverage to people who get sick. Insurers are also required to offer the same rates to applicants of the same age or who live in the same location. So they can’t hike up someone’s rates because they have a history of poor health, or are recovering from illness.

I can understand why some people might be upset at these changes. Insurers might end up losing money on some policies, and people who are always healthy might have to pay more for their policy to subsidise the loss-leading policies of people who are ill. But really, these are pretty poor arguments. If you get ill, that’s a shitty situation in itself. Being ill and then being told you have to pay more insurance – or that it’s being dropped entirely – is a bit of a kick in the teeth. It seems to me to be a good thing to try to stop that from happening.

Another restriction has been the banning of coverage caps. Previously, many (most? all?) insurance policies had clauses which capped the amount they’d pay out for healthcare, either on an annual or a lifetime basis. So someone might get ill, have a load of expensive healthcare, and then get to a point where they’d reach their coverage cap and their insurance provider would stop paying for treatment. Again, this seems to be a pretty shitty practice, so it’s probably good that they’ve banned it.

The reforms also see changes to Medicare and Medicaid, as well as the introduction of subsidies to help people pay for private insurance. Medicare and Medicaid are publicly-funded health insurance schemes, for the elderly and the poor. They’ve been expanded, so more people can access them. Subsidies are for those who earn too much to qualify for public health insurance, but earn less than a certain threshold. Taxes on high earners (over $500,000pa) have been raised to help fund these programmes. I suppose this makes sense; if you’re gonna mandate that people have health insurance, at least help them out a little. But it does highlight one of the problems of the scheme, which I’ll come back to later on.

The American right think this is all a terrible idea, and keep banging on about “socialised healthcare” and mentioning communism. From what I can gather, it isn’t socialised medicine at all. It’s an expansion of socialised healthcare insurance with the expansion of the base for Medicare and Medicaid, but it’s an expansion of private health insurance too. One of the problems with the scheme – the thing they’ve used to try to get it reversed in the courts – is that it requires people to pay money for private health insurance whether they want to or not. You can’t get upset about that whilst also claiming that the plans introduce communism into American healthcare. The two positions are contradictory.

The scheme is an expansion of health insurance to try to get 100% coverage; it’s also an attempt to try to ensure better healthcare by reining in some of the weird behaviours of private insurers (coverage caps etc). Judged purely on the basis of “how to make a good healthcare system”, it actually seems like a fairly decent idea. We know that public health insurance with private health provision can work well; that’s what they have in much of Europe, and those systems generally outperform other forms of healthcare system. It seems like the reforms fix some of what is wrong with American medicine – the lack of access – to try to move it closer to those types of European health systems. This seems to me to be a good idea.

What I find fascinating is that so many people in Britain are so supportive of these plans. The British Government is trying to introduce a health system that is sort of a hybrid between socialised medicine (i.e. provided by the state, what we have now, doesn’t work very well) and what Obama has just introduced. If the British Government went the whole hog and introduced the changes that Obama is making, there would be uproar. Why are these changes good in America, but bad in Britain?

Some other thoughts. These changes might make the health system better, but they’re also likely to cost a lot of money. The increased taxation (on individuals, and on business) will reduce economic growth, as will the imposition of more regulation on employers and individuals. I also don’t really understand why the government has increased taxes on medical supplies; ostensibly it must be to pay for these changes, but the cost will surely get transferred back to those who pay for treatment. To put it another way, the tax they’ve introduced to pay for more medical treatment will increase the cost of medical treatment. Doesn’t seem clever to me.

In the past few years, the key problem that’s faced every government has been how to deal with the economy; that’s what every world leader should be laser-focussed on. Instead, Obama spent a lot of time and effort trying to pass these reforms. But not only did he get distracted by them, the changes he’s made have actively made it harder for the economy to recover. Now, the reforms might be great; they might make healthcare in America much better, and perhaps that justifies it all. But the fact that he let this distract him from the economy – the major concern of our time, and most likely the fundamental issue of his presidency – surely calls his judgement into question.

Posted at 8:53 pm | Tagged: | 6 Comments

France in June…

Tuesday 19th June 2012

So yesterday I got back home after two and a half weeks in France. Went out for a weekend at the start of the month with work, and decided to stay out afterwards to visit Paris:

Champs-Élysées

After a week there, got the TGV back west to go back to work. Race week at Le Mans:

Le Mans pitlane at night

All in all, the last couple of weeks have been pretty good…

Posted at 10:45 pm | Tagged: | No Comments

Breaking Windows

Thursday 7th June 2012

Sometime this year (I think), Microsoft will release Windows 8. I’ve just been reading an article from the Windows 8 development blog, about how the design team has changed the user interface for the new release. It’s interesting reading; mostly because the design for the Windows 8 UI currently seems to be a complete mess, so it’s interesting to see the justification.

Here is basically what they’re doing. They’ve noticed that touchscreen tablets and phones are quite popular, so they’re trying to build more touch capability into Windows. Except they’ve done more than that; they’ve designed this new interface – Metro UI – specifically for touchscreen devices. And to be fair, it basically looks great; a tablet with that UI could easily be as good as the iPad, if it had the right hardware. But they’ve made Metro the default UI, for everything. If you have a desktop PC with one (or more) big non-touchscreen monitor, then if you upgrade to Windows 8 you’ll be presented with the same interface as if you’re using a Win8 touchscreen tablet. You’ll have to click an icon to get back to the desktop, and even then the new UI replaces the start menu. So if you want to launch a program, you’ll press the start button and the new interface will open in fullscreen.

I’ve not used the latest version of Windows 8, so it might be better now. But when they released the first beta version to the public a few months ago, I installed it onto a non-touch laptop. My thought was that it’s pretty much unusable. It’s perfectly stable, don’t get me wrong. But they’ve moved everything around, hidden basic stuff (e.g. turning the computer off), and basically messed it up. I think that if I bought a new computer that came with Win 8, it wouldn’t take me long before I gave up and “downgraded” to Win 7 (quotes because it just isn’t a downgrade; Windows 7 is a great OS, much better than 8).

I genuinely don’t understand why Microsoft are going down this route. No-one needs or wants a tablet that can do everything a desktop can, and using an interface developed for touchscreens on a non-touch PC is inherently annoying. And also, touch isn’t always useful; do you really want to be reaching across your desk to touch your display?

I can understand an argument for there being a degree of interoperability; for the two types of system to be able to talk to each other, and easily share files. That’s pretty much a given. But different types of machines – touch versus non-touch, mobile vs non-mobile – really place different requirements for the UI.

Microsoft seem to think touch is the future. I think they’re right, for some cases. I think tablet computers like the iPad (although actually, at the moment it’s just the iPad) could work really well as main computers for a large number of people. I use my iPad a lot (right now, for instance!), and there are really only specific instances where I actually need to use a proper computer. I think Microsoft think that too, hence why they’ve put so much emphasis on Metro.

But, if that’s the case, then people will be using devices that look very different to the computer they use today. And as I’ve mentioned, those devices are designed to be used in very different ways, so the UIs need to be designed differently to cater for that. The backend of a tablet and PC OS might look similar, but there’s no need to require the same interface on both. That is, Microsoft could design one version of Windows, but with two very different interfaces, depending on the device it’s installed on; the difference being that you only install and use one type of interface, rather than having both and flitting between the two. That’d be a bit messy (they should start their tablet/mobile OS afresh, like Apple did with iOS… and like Microsoft have already done with Windows Phone), but it’d possibly be a cost-effective way to provide software to various classes of device, and maintain interoperability between the two.

As it is, Windows 8 is basically a complete mess. If they release it like this, I reckon it’ll get a terrible reception, even worse than Vista got (Vista was actually a pretty decent OS, the problems were mostly not Microsoft’s fault). If that happens, I can only guess as to what’ll happen to Microsoft. Bad things, probably.

Posted at 8:11 pm | Tagged: | No Comments

Stop Kony. And then what?

Thursday 8th March 2012

So you’ve probably seen the Kony 2012 video, or at least heard of it. I only got around to watching it this morning, and to be honest it made me feel rather uncomfortable. Not uncomfortable because of  Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army (although clearly he and it are thoroughly unpleasant), but rather because of the style and presentation of the film. There are a few things which irked me, but my main problem is that it spends more time showing the film maker (and his son) and showing all the stuff he’s doing, than it does explaining what’s happening and why.

Here’s part of an article from Foreign Affairs magazine a few months ago (emphasis added):

“During the past decade, U.S.-based activists concerned about the LRA have successfully, if quietly, pressured the George W. Bush and Obama administrations to take a side in the fight between the LRA and the Ugandan government. Among the most influential of advocacy groups focusing specifically on the LRA are the Enough project, the Resolve campaign, the Canadian-based group GuluWalk, and the media-oriented group Invisible Children. Older agencies, from Human Rights Watch to World Vision, have also been involved. In their campaigns, such organizations have manipulated facts for strategic purposes, exaggerating the scale of LRA abductions and murders and emphasizing the LRA’s use of innocent children as soldiers, and portraying Kony — a brutal man, to be sure — as uniquely awful, a Kurtz-like embodiment of evil. They rarely refer to the Ugandan atrocities or those of Sudan’s People’s Liberation Army, such as attacks against civilians or looting of civilian homes and businesses, or the complicated regional politics fueling the conflict.”

I think what mostly made me uncomfortable about the video is not that the film makers simplified the situation, it’s that they barely try to talk about it at all. Kony may be a terrible person, but history has shown that when powerful states intervene in a region to remove one person, the likelihood is that someone else will step into the power vacuum. To quote Foreign Affairs again (emphasis added):

“Beyond the ins and outs of dealing with Kony, the political challenges in the region are simply too massive for Obama’s new operation to yield much fruit. The violence in Uganda, Congo, and South Sudan has been the most devastating — anywhere in the world — since the mid-1990s. Even conservative estimates place the death toll in the millions. And the LRA is, in fact, a relatively small player in all of this — as much a symptom as a cause of the endemic violence. If Kony is removed, LRA fighters will join other groups or act independently.

Until the underlying problem — the region’s poor governance — is adequately dealt with, there will be no sustainable peace. Seriously addressing the suffering of central Africans would require engagement of a much larger order. A huge deployment of peacekeeping troops with a clearly recognized legal mandate would have to be part of it. Those forces would need to be highly trained, have an effective command structure, be closely monitored, and be appropriately equipped with sophisticated surveillance equipment and helicopters, among other things. It would require a long-term commitment and would be targeted not only at chasing the LRA. Moreover, it would make the protection of the local populations a key priority. Finally, the deployment of such a force would need to have emerged from concerted efforts in international diplomacy[...] not as a knee-jerk reaction to the most recent media splash.

I’m not trying to say that it’s a bad idea to get rid of Kony, I’m saying that I don’t know enough about the situation to be able to form an opinion. And it unnerves me that people can form an opinion based upon just seeing that film, that they’re so willing to jump on a bandwagon seemingly without question. Because to my mind, to be able to form an opinion on something like this would take a lot of time and effort to learn about the complexities of what’s going on in the region; watching a 30 minute propaganda film just isn’t enough to allow anyone to say what should or shouldn’t be done.

P.S. This blog post by a Ugandan journalist makes some other very excellent points:

“Many African critics unsurprisingly are crying neo-colonialism. This is because these campaigns are disempowering of their own voices. After all the conflict and suffering is affecting them directly regardless of if they hit the re-tweet button or not. At the end of the day the Kony2012 campaign will not make Joseph Kony more famous but it will make Invisible Children famous.”

And… Oh, basically go and read all these links if you’re at all interested in this issue. You’d do much better to spend half an hour reading through some of those, than to spend it watching the video.

Posted at 12:00 pm | Tagged: | 2 Comments

Comparing two Observer articles…

Sunday 5th February 2012

First from a 2001 article by Andrew Browne, then the health editor of the Observer:

“Even as you read this, in almost every hospital in the country, there will be elderly, vulnerable people left for hours and sometimes days on trolleys. Each year, thousands of British people – the young, the old, the rich, the poor – die unnecessarily from lack of diagnosis, lack of treatment and lack of drugs. They die and suffer unnecessarily for different reasons, but there is just one root cause: the blind faith the Government has in the ideology of the National Health Service, and our unwillingness to accept not just that it doesn’t work, but that it can never work.”

“…we must abolish the NHS as we know it, abandon our unique obsession that all health care should be free, and become as comfortable with mixed public and private medicine as they are elsewhere in the developed world.”

It’s tragic that so many of his criticisms still seem to be valid.

Secondly, Ed Miliband on the Government’s proposed healthcare reforms:

“That bill remains what it was in the beginning: a misguided attempt to impose a free market free-for-all on our National Health Service.”

As Browne noted, other countries have mixed private and public health systems. Those healthcare systems are the best in the world. Miliband is criticising the reforms because they’re too similar to the best healthcare systems in the world.

Words fail me.

From the first article again:

“The noble ideology of communism had to be ditched because it didn’t work. So the noble ideology behind the NHS should be ditched because it costs lives. We should ditch the ideology and ditch the NHS.”

Quite right.

Posted at 12:09 am | Tagged: | No Comments

Of plans gone awry

Saturday 28th January 2012

About 18 months ago I graduated with a pretty good degree in Civil Engineering, from a pretty good university. In the last few months, I’ve also graduated from an MSc course in one particular part of Civils, again from a pretty good university. During the last year – and particularly the last few months since I finished my masters – I’ve been looking and applying for jobs within that industry. Had a few interviews too, but for whatever reason got nowhere. Lately, I’ve become bored of being skint, so I decided to look for a part-time job, something to do/earn money while I keep applying for “proper” jobs.

And, well, that’s sort of what I’ve done. I’ve taken what is essentially a part-time job, that I know will give me work for the majority of the year. But as part time jobs go, it’s a bit good…

I’m going to be working for a tyre company. Specifically, in the motorsport part of the company. Providing support to their customers in the World Endurance Championship. So basically, I’m going to go to a load of races, getting paid for it, and getting involved in engineering some of the cars that are taking part.

So I’ll be working at races at Sebring (Florida), Spa-Francorchamps (Belgium), Le Mans, Silverstone, Interlagos (Sao Paulo), Bahrain (or wherever they decide to reschedule it), Fuji (Japan) and somewhere in China. And I’ll also hopefully be involved in a bit of testing; I already know that I’ll be going to a tyre test in February, most likely at Monza.

So, my initial plan of “finish uni, get a civil engineering job” has sort of gone awry; I don’t know if this job will lead to any future work (although I get the impression that it possibly could), and of course I’m now not entirely available to start a “normal” office-based engineering job until about November, when the WEC season ends. But, well, I can’t say I’m really complaining…

I still find it slightly amazing that I had a few interviews for jobs that I should really be ideal for given my experience and my qualifications, and got nowhere. But somehow I’ve landed a job that’s completely different to what I’ve done before. Again, I can’t say I’m moaning; at least one of the companies I’ve interviewed for in the last 6 months is now in trouble. And, er, in this job I get to work in motorsport!

And that still hasn’t really sunk in. The way I keep looking at it is: I’ve wanted to go to the Le Mans 24 Hours for years. I’m going this year, and I’ll be in the pitlane for the race. I’ve been to spectate at the Silverstone 6 Hours for the last couple of years, this year I’ll be working there. It’s all a bit unreal really.

So that’s what I’m doing this year. I’m very excited.

Posted at 1:09 am | Tagged: | 2 Comments

“Foolproof, and incapable of error”

Saturday 21st January 2012

Whilst I was thinking about and writing the previous post, a couple of extra things came to mind which I couldn’t really fit into the post. So I thought I might as well do a follow-up with a couple of extra observations. I did intend to write this earlier, but partly I was busy (more on that in a following post) and mostly I just didn’t get around to it.

1) The previous post was not so much about aeroplanes, but more about interfaces in general. Be that with machinery like a plane, or a device like a phone, or even infrastructure or services. And it struck me that one of the few organisations that consistently manages to create things with great interfaces is Apple. Not so much with their computers (I’m really not a big fan of MacOS, probably because I’m more used to Windows), but their iOS devices (iPhones and iPads) are really good examples of things which simplify tasks through good interface design.

It strikes me that if the computing business ever starts to go slack (!), Apple could do a good business out of consultancy; imagine if they applied their UI design skills to things other than making iPhones and iPads. This isn’t as daft as it sounds; some ex-Apple employees recently set up a business to make a better thermostat. That’s a specific example of someone applying the Apple approach to interfaces to a different type of product, and I’m sure there are other things which would benefit from the same approach.

2) For some reason, I also started thinking about 2001: A Space Odyssey (spoilers follow. Although, it’s a 40-odd year old book/film, so I guess most people at least vaguely know the plot. If you don’t, then go read the book and watch the film. They’re classics). The first – obvious – point is that a lot of the interfaces in that film do appear to tend towards simplicity. There’s loads of little things: the video phone booth that Dr Floyd uses near the start of the film, the tablets that Bowman and Poole use on Discovery, all the spaceship status screens look like they’re intended to be simple, and of course there’s HAL9000

On the topic of HAL, it occurred that his demise is pretty relevant too. HAL was programmed to help the crew, to convey information to them about Discovery and about the status of the mission. But before the crew left Earth the parameters of the mission were changed; this was secret, and the crew were not to be told until Discovery reached Jupiter. As the central computer, HAL knew the real purpose of the mission, but was not allowed to tell the crew. He was being asked to hide information, to lie. This ran counter to HAL’s programming – he was designed to give information, not to hide it – and because of that conflict he perceived there to be a problem. Which he then set out to rectify…

The point is, HAL failed because the people who defined his tasks for the mission did so incorrectly. The computer carried out its tasks as it saw best, but those tasks were in conflict with each other. And so the failure of the mission was the result of misuse of the computer. Now obviously the details in this and in the example in the previous post are very different, but in general, it’s the same fault: the computers behaved exactly as they were asked, the error arose from the way people were trying to use them.

And, really, how clever is that? That 40 years ago, people were thinking about how we’ll be using these ultra-sophisticated computers, and were (in a very broad sense) predicting some of the problems that we’re starting to see. Just makes me realise how great a job Clarke (and Kubrick, I think) did in writing that story, and how many ideas they’ve managed to pack into it. I’ve read the book many times already, but I really need to re-watch the film.

Posted at 10:34 pm | Tagged: | No Comments

The perils of poor UI

Sunday 15th January 2012

You might remember that a couple of years ago, an Air France plane crashed into the Atlantic. Recently, Popular Mechanics ran an article which explained the causes of the accident using data from the aircraft’s black box. In the immediate aftermath of the accident, it was assumed that something on the aircraft must have failed as it passed through a storm. In fact, that turned out to be wrong; the aircraft was mostly fine, and the pilots “flew a perfectly good plane into the ocean”.

According to the article (which is fascinating, I really urge you to read it), the pitot tubes on the surface of the aircraft (airspeed sensors) became iced over, which meant that the pilots lost the airspeed indicator. Without this data the autopilot couldn’t fully function, and so it partially disengaged. While this went on, one of the pilots decided to put the plane into a climb, which caused it to stall (a sudden reduction in the amount of lift generated by the plane’s aerofoils). When this happened, the pilots tried to continue climbing; the wrong response, and it ultimately caused the plane to lose altitude.

The pilots on commercial aircraft such as this are highly trained, so why, when the plane started to stall, did one of them do precisely the opposite of what he should have done?

‘…the reason may be that they believe it is impossible for them to stall the airplane. It’s not an entirely unreasonable idea: The Airbus is a fly-by-wire plane; the control inputs are not fed directly to the control surfaces, but to a computer, which then in turn commands actuators that move the ailerons, rudder, elevator, and flaps. The vast majority of the time, the computer operates within what’s known as normal law, which means that the computer will not enact any control movements that would cause the plane to leave its flight envelope. “You can’t stall the airplane in normal law,” says Godfrey Camilleri, a flight instructor who teaches Airbus 330 systems to US Airways pilots.

But once the computer lost its airspeed data, it disconnected the autopilot and switched from normal law to “alternate law,” a regime with far fewer restrictions on what a pilot can do. “Once you’re in alternate law, you can stall the airplane,” Camilleri says.

It’s quite possible that Bonin had never flown an airplane in alternate law, or understood its lack of restrictions. According to Camilleri, not one of US Airway’s 17 Airbus 330s has ever been in alternate law. Therefore, Bonin may have assumed that the stall warning was spurious because he didn’t realize that the plane could remove its own restrictions against stalling and, indeed, had done so.’

In normal flight, the computer systems try to make it easier to fly the plane. But once the computers stopped getting inputs from some sensors, those systems disengaged and so altered the behaviour of the aircraft. And so it’s conceivable that efforts to make the plane safer by making piloting the aircraft easier – by simplifying the controls and handing some responsibility to the computers – may have actually contributed to this accident. There could be a number of reasons for that; the change from normal to alternate law may have been unintuitive or non-obvious to the pilots. Or perhaps its simply that taking some of the responsibility for flying the plane away from pilots for the majority of the time causes them to become complacent – to think that the plane couldn’t stall – or meant that they weren’t sure how to react when the computers couldn’t help them. How sensible is it to introduce inconsistent behaviour into any control system, let alone that for a commercial aircraft?

Hang on though, there’s more than one pilot flying the plane. When the aircraft began to stall one of them behaved incorrectly, but this is partly why there’s more than one pilot. Why didn’t the other pilot spot the mistake, and do something to solve it? Well, the Popular Mechanics article also picks up on another part of the plane’s control mechanisms which may have contributed to this:

‘Unlike the control yokes of a Boeing jetliner, the side sticks on an Airbus are “asynchronous”—that is, they move independently. “If the person in the right seat is pulling back on the joystick, the person in the left seat doesn’t feel it,” says Dr. David Esser, a professor of aeronautical science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. “Their stick doesn’t move just because the other one does, unlike the old-fashioned mechanical systems like you find in small planes, where if you turn one, the [other] one turns the same way.” Robert has no idea that, despite their conversation about descending, Bonin has continued to pull back on the side stick.’

The two pilots didn’t know what each of them were doing. So one pilot was pulling back on the controls – the wrong thing to do in a stall - and the other one had no idea.

One one level, I’m simply amazed that this can happen, that the pilots can be unaware of what each other is doing. But then, I also imagine that this is a fairly stressful situation – being thrown around in an aircraft during a storm, with all sorts of alarms sounding – and that within that situation, irrespective of your training, it’s kind of easy to make a mistake.

What I mostly find interesting about this accident is that it was essentially caused by human error, and by the way that humans interact with the aircraft. By that, I mean that the pilots made several mistakes; they shouldn’t have been near the storm in the first place, and they should have acted differently once they reached the storm. But those human errors were, in part, brought about or exacerbated by the aircraft’s control systems.

In other words, this accident was in no small part caused by poor user interface design. The built-in inconsistency between normal and alternate law which possibly confused the pilots at a time when they didn’t have the capacity to deal with the confusion, and the asynchronous controls which hindered communication between the pilots. Because of these things, competent pilots flew a perfectly operable aircraft into the Atlantic Ocean.

These are things that most engineers probably wouldn’t think about. We’re technical people – that’s why we’re engineers – so we think about numbers, about science, about the basic mechanics that underlie how something works. But that’s not the only thing that’s important about a design; it’s also important to consider how people are going to use the thing you’re making. This is applicable to most designs, whether you’re making an aircraft or a building or a phone.

In this case we’ve seen something particularly interesting happen, since the designers have tried to make the plane easier to fly, by delegating some control to autopilots in normal law. But it appears that simplifying the controls might have actually contributed to the accident by confusing one of the pilots. This seems somewhat unintuitive; if we make something easier to use then it seems fair to reason that we also reduce the likelihood of someone using it wrong, and so make it safer. But it’s human nature to be lazy, so when you tell someone that they ordinarily don’t need to think about a particular variable, then they probably won’t think about it at all.

Now I don’t point this out to make an argument against any of the control systems that Airbus build into their aircraft (although, really, asynchronous controls? Isn’t that just obviously a bad idea?), or against making things simpler. Airbus probably know what they’re doing (“probably” being the operative word*). The point is that working out how someone will use something is just as important as figuring out how to make something work; it’s something that should be obvious, but that I suspect is often seen as a secondary consideration.

The designers of the aircraft obviously have thought about this, and their solution was to try to make it simpler to use by hiding some of the complexity from the pilots in normal law; but does that really make it simpler to fly the plane? Perhaps in normal flight, but I suspect that we’d like our aircraft to be designed with abnormal flight in mind as well. And in that situation, perhaps what would really make things simpler is a way of helping the pilots to deal with the complexity, rather than trying to shield them from it and presenting them with unnecessary changeability when that is not possible.

* The Airbus A380 is big, and so Airbus tried to make it as light as possible. To do that, they’ve used carbon fibre reinforced plastic in certain parts of the structure, notably the wings. Carbon fibre: light! strong! stiff! notoriously brittle! Er, hang on a minute…

When I read that they’d used composites, I wondered whether it’d be a great idea. My main concern was durability: would the material start to crack after a certain number of cycles? Imagine my absolute lack of surprise when it was reported recently that Qantas and Singapore Airlines have discovered that there are cracks on the wings of some of their A380s… Airbus say that it’s not important, the cracks are on non-critical parts of the aircraft (although.. really? I highly doubt that it’s designed to crack). I’m sure they’re right, but it’ll be an interesting one to watch.

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